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Betting on the vote opened this week with Prime Minister Boris Johnson seen as narrowly odds-on - that is, just more than - to secure a majority for his pro-Brexit government, with the likelihood of a hung parliament close behind.

While politics betting face restrictions in the United States and France, it has grown steadily in Britain. The odds it generates make local media headlines and are seen by some investors - especially those wary of opinion polls - as a valid barometer of outcomes affecting billions of dollars of holdings. The flip-side is the outcry when the bookies are judged to have got it wrong, as when they pegged Remain as the comfortable winner of the June EU referendum, or marked Hillary Clinton as favorite to beat Donald Trump in the U.

Bookmakers counter that betting markets are not there to anticipate such upsets and that observers are missing the point if they think they are. While odds quoted on on-line betting exchanges like Betfair are simply those offered by thousands of individual punters betting against themselves, bookmakers like William Hill and Ladbroke open a book with their own assessment of likelihoods. That is relatively straightforward for soccer, horseracing or tennis where large data sets on past performance have been gathered.

Politics is much trickier. This is the notion that crowds together produce more accurate assessments than individuals - something first observed by 19th century English statistician Francis Galton at a country fair event to guess the weight of an ox. At the…. Events which utterly dominated government policy and public discourse can be forgotten in a matter of years. Other events were passed by almost unnoticed at the time, and yet — in retrospect — seem incredibly important.

So, here goes. They will be considered watershed years: Before CV…. Sisyphus was happy, reckoned Albert Camus. The Boundary Commissioners may have their own view on this: for the third time they are being asked to come up with new proposals.

Their proposals for and both came to nothing. They are now beavering away on their proposals for Boundary reviews get wonks very excited. By and large, they should simmer down. Labour has lost the last four general elections.

It has not won the popular vote in England since ; twenty years ago. Labour is not in power in Westminster or Scotland.


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UK election analysis: Why did Boris Johnson's Conservatives win big? - DW News

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UK general election odds for the next vote, expected in Which party will win the most seats? View all election betting markets here! British Politics Betting Odds. View all available outright and match odds, plus get news, tips, free bets and money-back offers. All you need to bet. Next UK General Election. Most Seats. 33/5 · Yes. Trump Specials. Will The Senate Convict. Get a bet on with Paddy! Check out the odds on our UK - Next General Election - Government after Next Election (First New Cabinet) page, and show your politics​.