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Those supporters tend to snowball, meaning just a few major endorsements in a short time can encourage more to follow suit. This gives, at the very least, the perception of a strong candidate. That in turn can influence their prospects — and their election odds.
Candidates love to tout any and all endorsements, proudly discussing them on the campaign trail and posting them on their election websites and literature. Check out a candidate's endorsement list when considering a bet, and also view odds on Bookies. Polls remain the lifeblood of any candidate's run — and a critical factor in presidential betting odds. Endorsements, debate performances, primary results and a host of other factors can influence poll respondents' answers, but the results of the polls themselves have major impacts on how bookmakers view a candidate's prospects.
Presidential election bettors will note shifts after most major polls are released. By and large, the odds tend to reflect these changes. A sharp bettor also knows that a strong debate performance, for example, could lead to a bump in the polls, and that they should place their bet quickly before their odds are slashed by the next poll. Sharp political bettors also know a shift in poll results without a shift in betting odds could mean bookmakers are taking in a different set of information or sharp money that is seemingly going against the polling data.
Polling remains a baseline for a candidate's chance of success, but there are more factors in the process, some that may be harder to discern. Still, bettors would be wise to follow major polls such as Quinnipiac, Mason-Dixon, Monmouth and reputable news organizations, among others.
There are literally hundreds of types of political polls, but the most critical are favorability ratings and preferred candidate during the nomination process and for the general election. It is essential to look at swing states such as Georgia, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as they often will determine who wins the Electoral College and the presidency.
Worthwhile polls are released almost daily, so bettors should track these sources almost as closely as they check election betting odds. American presidential elections arguably depend on money more than another other factor. A candidate's war chest not only helps him or her promote their message before voters, it also shows the degree of support. Someone willing to give their money to a presidential contender is perhaps the most significant sign of being literally invested in a candidate.
Media outlets love to report a candidate's financial situation, particularly in the context of their campaign's success, and candidates themselves must disclose, line-by-line, their income and expenditures quarterly. A particularly successful or unsuccessful fundraising haul makes headlines and goes a long way into how bookmakers view presidential election odds.
Both Republicans and Democrats will spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the presidential election alone, so a well-funded campaign is essential to not just secure a nomination but win the presidency. A sharp political bettor always checks a candidate's finances before placing a wager. With Americans unable to place legal bets on any political race, they will have to be content following along with developments and voting in their state's nominating contest.
For bettors outside the U. As any sharp knows, a good bet isn't necessarily on who will win but the value that bettor receives. The grueling presidential campaign process sees massive betting odds fluctuation for all contenders.
It's almost impossible to predict which way the lines will go ahead of time, but there are key trends to monitor. Though campaigns famously can flip after one bad quote or photo, much of what makes or breaks a candidacy is scheduled ahead of time.
Track debates, earning reports and major polls released before primaries , all of which are planned in advance. A politics bettor that thinks a candidate is going to do show well in any of these areas should place a bet before they happen. Conversely, if a bettor believes a candidate will do poorly in these areas but still is a good bet overall, they should wait until afterward to place their wager.
Like a smart investment in the stock market, presidential election bettors should buy a candidate's prospects when odds are undervalued. America's elections take fundamental differences to the parliamentary-style process in most English-speaking countries.
Parties don't select a candidate, but they instead accrue delegates through a state-by-state nomination process, with the eventual recipient of the most delegates earning the right to go to the general election. In another key difference, the general election isn't determined by raw popular votes, but by the Electoral College.
Each of the 50 states is given a number of Electoral College votes based off its population, and the winner is the person who secures or more of those votes. So while national polls may show an advantage for one candidate or another, the election will be decided by who wins the most votes in a specific set of states.
In , and the election, those were in the American Midwest, most notably Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. With the majority of Electoral College votes essentially decided due to heavy partisan leans in most states, bettors shouldn't concern themselves with national trends, but look at polls, fundraising and support in that key handful of undetermined states.
It can't be reiterated enough that primaries are for a party's nomination not the general election. While primary wins are good to track for bets on the party nominee, it's important to understand that that a candidate can gain overwhelming support in their party's state nomination contest but have almost no chance in that same state's general election.
For example, the winner of the South Carolina Democratic primary has that victory as a way to show the nationwide Democratic base that they are the best candidate for their party. However, the South Carolina Democratic primary winner has virtually no shot carrying that state in the general election because of its overwhelming partisan lean toward Republicans. Again, just because someone touts support, no matter how lopsided, in a party primary, it doesn't have much of an impact on the general election.
Sharp bettors need to familiarize themselves with current partisan makeups and realize that in most states intraparty support means very little in the general election. Oprah, Kanye West, The Rock and other celebrities might make for a fun bet, but they are never good wagers, no matter the odds. People may point to another celebrity-turned-president in Trump after his improbable run to the White House, but his campaign still withstood the month crucible of a presidential run.
Michael Kates. Lou Monaco. Anthony Bennett. Tom Cotton. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is the second choice. Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey reviewjournal. Follow tdewey33 on Twitter. World No. Patrick Cantlay is now the favorite at Perhaps more improbable than Tom Brady leaving New England after 20 years and leading Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl title in his first season there was the manner in which the Buccaneers beat the Chiefs.
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