Wales won the Grand Slam earlier this year and were on a match winning streak before the warm-up matches. Ireland beat New Zealand last autumn and England have the quality and strength in-depth to win and will be even more confident after their demolition of Ireland in the warm-up game a few weeks ago.
Outsiders consist of Argentina and France, who are both equally dangerous on their day but their inconsistency is always something that is going to be a problem in a World Cup. Talking of winners, we may as well start with the obvious one. For me, I personally think New Zealand are beatable and we saw that in the defeats to Ireland in the autumn, the defeat to Australia in the Rugby Championship and the draw with South Africa at home.
They do not look as invincible as they have done in the past two World Cup's and I think they will be beaten this year. My pick is South Africa. They have shown in the Rugby Championship what they are capable of and they seem to have built a really physical side that is battle-hardened for this campaign. They have got the balance between flair and brute spot on, with a huge forward pack and some really exciting backs. They are in a group with the All Blacks, however, and that first game between those two will, I think, prove very decisive.
Italy, Namibia and Canada are the unlucky three that have been paired with the two favourites and South Africa and New Zealand will be able to rest players and try some different combinations in those matches, given that they will most likely win those games regardless.
Both of them will get through, therefore and then they will play the sides who progress from group A either Scotland, Japan or Ireland. They will have too much for those sides, I feel, and I do think they will go on to face each other again in the final after coming through their semis.
With this market, the key is to pick a player playing for a side who have the more favourable group. The chances are, one good game from a player could win you this bet, so looking at the groups, I think a player from South Africa or New Zealand is the safest place to go.
Those two have games against Italy, Namibia and Canada, in which you would not be shocked to see them hit each of them for at least 80 points maybe Italy will keep them down to a little less. Therefore, my picks are mainly amongst South Africa and New Zealand. His stats are quite ridiculous, for any player, let alone a year-old. Since he crashed onto the scene in for the Blues in Super Rugby, he has scored 32 tries in 49 matches and since he became an All Black, he has racked up 23 tries in 26 appearances.
He has not been in the Springbok setup for long, only the past year but he has already scored seven tries in his eight appearances and his two against Argentina showed what a prolific scorer he can be. Having said all of that, there is a chance, given how straight-forward the group is, that the Springboks and New Zealand will rotate their squad, meaning less game time for some players.
So those three are my picks here. Bookies will pay out the top four places. In June, for example, Sweden's Gaming board reported the editors of four Swedish newspapers and magazines Expressen, Metro, Slitz and Spray to the police for publishing adverts from foreign gambling companies. The table below, which highlights the prices available on the match at To some extent this can be attributed to Betfair, which curtailed the ability of the big bookmarkers' to manipulate starting prices, through blowing money back into the on-course market.
Then, there were the odds-checking sites such as Oddschecker, which placed the big bookmakers on the same footing as numerous small entrants, and served to put pressure on industry margins by making prices more visible and encouraging a greater intensity of competition. Despite the arrival of internet betting and the betting exchanges, the same situation has not been mirrored in Ireland, where the over-round per runner continues to operate at well over two per cent.
In the www. The eleven runner race was won by the Even money favourite Chateau D'eau. In the BetChronicle. The field comprised of eleven runners. Whilst Irish bookmakers have managed to convey an image of being great risk takers, the truth is, that the huge over-rounds pertaining on almost every horse race run in Ireland, characterise them as being infinitely risk averse. They seemingly spend their entire time shielding against real or imagined insiders, who they believe to be better informed than they are.
The existence of such uncompetitive offerings, would, one would imagine, drive bettors towards the betting exchnages in their numbers, but strangely, this has not been the case to date. It would seem that the informed insiders are happy to play in betting markets exhibiting huge over-rounds, rather than reveal their hands on the betting exchanges.
Accordingly, it is the punters in the Irish betting shops who suffer; many of whom know no better than to bet at SP. An interesting aspect of the Irish betting market over the past eight years, has been the reluctance of bookmakers to embrace online betting; a fear of margin depletion being the most likely reason. Cashmans of Cork, one of the most high profile Irish bookmakers, shows no sign of making the leap online.
Sean Graham came online and then went back off again. Eastwoods remain offline. Terry Rogers recently entered the fray, and Hacketts are coming back online, having dipped their toes in the water some time ago. BetChronicle now also have an online presence. The betting exchanges Betdaq and Betfair both operate in the Irish betting market.
The extent to which Irish punters are being ripped off when it comes to betting on horse racing, has been one of the great untold stories of recent times. Until now, something akin to a conspiracy of silence has reigned. Everybody knows the shocking over-rounds in operation in the Irish betting market, but everybody just puts up with it for fear of rattling the boat.
Even Betfair and Betdaq seem somewhat reluctant to capitalise upon the issue. And as for the irish journalists In the tables below we look at four recent horse race meetings in Ireland. In the first table we look at the over-round per race. In Table two we break this down further and look at the key metric over-round per runner. Clonmel prices were from the meeting on 1 November The prices for Down Royal were collected from the meeting there on 02 November The prices for Leopardstown were collected from the meeting there held on 03 November The horses are listed in market order and not order of finish.
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