Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed.. Joined: Feb 11, Threads: 62 Posts: It's pretty much impossible or impractical at least to update your bets to kelly in real time. Also, you probably should not be betting at full kelly, since you're going to have some wild swings.
It's perfectly fine to under-bet. Not sure what kind of BR you have or what stage you're in. If you're starting out and really want to grow your bankroll but take risk, then bet full kelly, hope you get a nice upswing, then let it smooth out. July 5th, at AM permalink. Joined: May 19, Threads: 51 Posts: Fascinating thread. Seems to me, even if Lady Luck had prepared the extremely improbable run of luck that could "ruin" a casino, the casino could take some kind of preventive action in a timely manner to thwart Lady Luck.
Casinos don't put all their eggs in one basket. They have lotsa baskets, and they watch each constantly. However, I'm not sure exactly what options might be available to a casino if lotsa slot machines suddenly began giving max wins, and dealers at almost every table couldn't win more than one hand an hour. Hopefully, others who are more knowledgeable have some ideas about preventive actions available to a casino.
Wouldn't it be fun to be there, though? And, Mary, how did you just get two four-of-a-kind hands in a row? Joined: Jul 22, Threads: 27 Posts: Joined: Sep 26, Threads: 13 Posts: July 5th, at PM permalink. While casinos are limited I guess my response was more that for any of us posting on these forums, in respect to us, the casino does have an infinite bankroll.
It's only the whales that have as much or more money than the casino that could actually hurt the casino. Interesting idea though that the casino could use Kelly to determine what a safe maximum bet would be to take FROM a whale Playing it correctly means you've already won. Joined: Jan 3, Threads: 1 Posts: 8. August 9th, at AM permalink. Can the Kelly Criterion be usefully applied to sizing craps bets when laying odds from the don't? Odds are zero-sum, sure, but they are also by definition favored to win from the don't.
If the goal might be to maximize profit during a winning streak by wagering increasing percentages or minimizing losses by wagering decreasing percentages of the bankroll, I think the Kelly could help guide the amount of lay odds bets. Exciting stuff, right? How does that work? It assumes that the player only places action when he has a positive expectation.
Does it have any application in casino craps? Well, the answer to that is — depends. It depends on your advantage — and how consistent it is. Winning bets will be paid at 2-to How much is your next bet? Remember, that percentage is dictated by your advantage on the ten — not by your bankroll. Now imagine you win again employing the same strategy.
But what do you do on a loss? Simply put — the same thing. Note that you had two wins and two losses for the series, but are still dollars ahead.
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|Kelly betting craps||Kelly betting craps tourists, ploppies etc. Kelly betting craps much is your next bet? Joined: Jun 1, Threads: 45 Posts: My problem is I never know exactly how much at any one time I have in my rack. I look at each day as it's own session. It is no great sin to risk somewhat less, but a tragedy to risk more! Never heard of the Kelly, but I don't now any popular people either, other than a few sports stars.|
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The title of this article sounds like the title of a spy novel. John Kelly was an interesting fellow, but as far as I know he was never an undercover agent. In he developed what has become known as the Kelly Criterion. His original formulas dealt with long-distance telephone transmission signal to noise ratios. Exciting stuff, right? How does that work? It assumes that the player only places action when he has a positive expectation. Does it have any application in casino craps?
Well, the answer to that is — depends. It depends on your advantage — and how consistent it is. Winning bets will be paid at 2-to How much is your next bet? Remember, that percentage is dictated by your advantage on the ten — not by your bankroll. Kelly did not, of course, use those precise words — the paper being written in terms of an imaginary scenario involving bookies, noisy telephone lines, and wiretaps so that it could be published by the prestigious Bell System Technical journal.
Assuming that your criterion is the same as Kelly's criterion — maximizing the long term growth rate of your fortune — the answer Kelly gives is to stake the fraction of your gambling or investment bankroll which exactly equals your advantage. The form below allows you to determine what that amount is. Unfortunately it is now defunct, and only contains adverts for an online casino.
However, you can find much of the content through the Wayback Machine archive. If this link breaks — as it has done several time since this page was written — try searching for the article title. We based the above calculations on the description given in the book Taking Chances: Winning With Probability by John Haigh, which is an excellent introduction to the mathematics of probability. Note that there is a misprint in the formula for approximating average growth rate on p 2nd edition and the approximation also assumes that your advantage is small.
There is a short list of corrections which can be found through John Haigh's web page. Note that although the Kelly Criterion provides an upper bound on the amount that should be risked, there are sound arguments for risking less. In particular, the Kelly fraction assumes an infinitely long sequence of wagers — but in the long run we are all dead. There's an interesting discussion of this not aimed at a mathematical reader in Part 4 of the book Fortune's Formula which gives some of the history of the Kelly criterion, along with some of its notable successes and failures.
Jeffrey Ma was one of the members of the MIT Blackjack Team, a team which developed a system based on the Kelly criterion, card counting, and team play to beat casinos at Blackjack. He has written an interesting book The House Advantage , which examines what he learned about managing risk from playing blackjack.
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